1 Global capacity has fully recovered above 2019 levels and could show a slight contraction over the first half of 2024 but should remain relatively flat. Conversely, real exports, are expected to grow significantly from a slower pace in 2023, as markets and manufacturing continue to recover globally. Projections indicate a lower GDP growth compared to 2023, with a gradual rebound in the second half of 2024 following a slower start. Global macroeconomic projections show a mixed outlook in 2024. As consumers spend more money this year, we could see inventories start to diminish next year, and as companies begin to explore nearshoring solutions in countries like Mexico, there could be an increase in North American air freight demand and volume in 2024. This indicates that consumers believe the current worsening in economic conditions will not press forward much longer. When looking at long-run Consumer Index reports, expected business conditions show minor changes. The export of oil from the Middle East, coupled with higher inflation in the US, has the potential to impact the US economy, given that the export of oil serves as a binding factor between the two regions’ economies. The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine could threaten to send oil prices higher and increase expenditures. In 2024, oil is expected to play a big part in North American air freight. Reach out to one of our experts if you have any questions about optimizing your business’ supply chain. UPS Supply Chain Solutions is your company’s end-to-end solution provider. For more on what you can expect next year, check out our recent webinar, 2024 End-to-End Supply Chain Outlook. Outlined below are detailed forecasts anticipated to come into play in 2024, categorized by mode or service. Overall, market indicators are signaling a more stable outlook for freight forwarding in the new year, as shown in somewhat flat forecasts for both air and ocean freight rates, continuing from their 2023 trend. Conversations in the trade landscape continue to revolve around changing trade flows and new sourcing strategies, with an increased focus on Nearshoring. The landscape of supply chains remains influenced by dynamic factors like evolving customs regulations, geopolitical trends, innovation and shifts in freight demand and capacity. While there are no guarantees with today's supply chains, we've taken a look at this year's trends and their potential impact for shippers in 2024.
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